My day job is in research, so I've draw on various resources in an attempt to help answer two questions about LOCI's move to USA Network:
(1) How might this change affect what viewers see onscreen in the new fall episodes?
(2) Is the move a good sign that LOCI might have a life beyond season 7?
The likely answer to #1 is "not a thing" and can be found in what we know about basic cable in general, and USA Network in particular.
- Basic cable TV has about a 90% penetration across U.S. households. It's not a niche platform, though many of its channels have a much-smaller-than-broadcast niche audience.
- USA Network, the #1 cable channel, targets the same general 18-49 population as NBC broadcast TV.
According to USA president Bonnie Hammer, in an interview with National Public Radio last year, USA's brand aims to provide "comfortable" programming that is "safe and predictable...but with a little more sass."
- Stripped rerun episodes on USA (and Bravo) already make LOCI the #1 off-network prime time series on cable among viewers 25-54. In that age population it draws a little over 1 million viewers a week. (source: Broadcasting & Cable).
LOCI works as it is for USA's general audience. Why would NBC Universal want to mess around with change? So we might as well believe Warren Leight and Dick Wolf when they claim that, despite budget cuts, the new LOCI episodes on USA will offer the same quality as the episodes that originated on NBC. (That's either good or bad -- depending on one's opinion of season 6 in general.)
Addressing question #2: Is the move a good sign for an 8th LOCI season?
Primary to the answer is whether LOCI first-run episodes perform on USA as Jeff Zucker expects. He's called LOCI's move "an investment in USA Network" - not an investment in LOCI. That means a lot of pressure on LOCI to boost the overall weekly audience for USA Network, and bring in substantial new revenue.
- LOCI episodes will still be significantly more expensive to produce -- even with budget cuts -- than any other original series developed for USA.
To justify the 22 episode commitment for season 7 (when other USA original series have a season of 13) LOCI will likely need to set a whole new benchmark for weekly cable ratings -- not only for original, scripted series but possibly for any kind of regularly scheduled cable show.
What kind of benchmark? Here's what LOCI will probably be compared to:
- The largest audience any original scripted cable series has ever attracted is 8 million, for a first-run episode of "The Closer" on TNT.
- USA's top-rated original series -- "Monk" -- recently drew well over 5 million viewers for its recent season debut episode.
- Most weeks now, the top-rated cable programs attract 3 to 4 million viewers at best. None recently have been original scripted series -- although "Monk" has certainly landed among the top 10 cable shows many times, as has "The Closer."
- The show that's currently chief in keeping USA the top-rated cable network is the WWE. Yep, wrestling. LOCI first-run episodes will surely need to do much better than the WWE because it's obvious those shows don't cost almost $2 million each.
I'm sure others on the board have information as well as opinions about the probable answers to the questions I posed at the beginning of this thread.
I'm looking forward to a robust exchange as we wait out the long summer to the next first-run Goren/Eames episode.
Annabelle Leigh
