As astute media observers, we all know that the television industry is in the midst of change, and that what we see on the small screen -- in the months and years to come -- will be affected by what goes on behind the scenes.

With the encouragement of Rowe and Peachy, I'm starting this OT thread as a place for board members to inquire about -- and post -- items about TV industry developments that will likely affect us as viewers.

Some of those items will be about changes that are seminal and profound. The rise of new distribution platforms has dispersed traditional broadcast TV audiences to other media outlets, beginning with the development of cable over 20 years ago. Now cable has grown so strong our own LOCI is making history by migrating to the number one basic cable channel from the fourth-place broadcast television network -- and we need not see it as being "sent down to the minors."

Other items will be about business-as-usual, but with new twists brought about by the new media revolution. An impending strike by the Writers Guild may be an old scenario, but settling it would likely involve never-before-negotiated issues involving rights and rates. This thread will be the place to discuss that possible strike.

This thread does not replace "CI in the media" or any of the LOCI-specific threads concerning contracts or ratings -- or the show's move to USA Network. It's about the TV industry, change, news, and us (as media consumers) -- and I welcome any posts or discussions from interested fellow board members.

To begin: Peachy has contributed a number of links about the Writers Guild and the possible strike, which I'll post in the next message.

Annabelle Leigh

From Peachy, a good backgrounder on the issues involved in a possible Writers Guild strike. More to come -- and please post your own press discoveries that update strike news.

AL
------------------

Monday, May 14, 2007

Hollywood studios stockpiling shows for possible strike by writers

By Gary Gentile
The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES — Hollywood studios are speeding production on movies and TV shows, preparing for a possible strike by writers and more trouble next year when contracts with actors and directors expire.

TV networks, which are in the midst of planning fall schedules, also might pack their lineups with more reality shows and other unscripted fare as protection against a possible strike.

"It's simply sound business," said J. Nicholas Counter, president of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which negotiates on behalf of the studios.

"Based upon the public statements of the Writers Guild, it's quite clear these are going to be very contentious negotiations," he said. "Their statements are bellicose, so we've got to prepare for the worst."

Among the shows accelerating production is NBC's "Las Vegas," which started three months earlier than usual with the aim of finishing 18 to 24 episodes before the fall. Normally, the show would have only about seven or eight episodes filmed.

"In essence, it makes us strike proof," said Gary Scott Thompson, the show's writer and executive producer and a veteran of the last writer's strike in 1988.

Another NBC show, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" began shooting two months early.

The three-year pact between studios and the Writers Guild of America expires Oct. 31 and talks are scheduled to begin in July.

That gives both sides little time to resolve complex issues involving how much TV and film writers should be paid when their work is distributed on new media platforms, including the Internet, cell phones, digital media players and other devices. The writers argue the payments — modeled after the structures used for DVD rights — are too low.

Older battles also remain to be resolved, including the revision of a decades-old formula for compensating writers for work that appears on DVD.

"There's no question in my mind this is not simply about emerging technology, but the perception that the guilds pretty much got screwed in previous negotiations in what were then emerging technologies," TV writer and producer Steven Bochco said.

"All the guilds feel strongly that they don't want to be caught in a position that doesn't anticipate rapidly shifting technological advancements that leave them high and dry."

Bochco, the Emmy Award-winning creator of such shows as "NYPD Blue" and "Hill Street Blues" is creating a legal drama pilot for TNT. He said the issue of stockpiling always arises as a negotiating tactic.

Both the WGA and Screen Actors Guild elected new leaders after the current contracts were signed who have promised to get tougher with studios.

The WGA, in particular, has led an effort to organize the editors and producers the guild say actually "write" reality TV shows. Several lawsuits have been filed against networks and the union supported a brief strike by about a dozen staff of the show "America's Next Top Model."

Actors and writers have also taken a tough stand against the increasing use of product placement in shows, a growing practice as more people zap ads recorded on a TiVo or similar device. The guilds have said their members deserve a piece of the revenue generated by the mention or appearance of products.

The WGA also angered the studios by rejecting a request to start contract talks in January, opting instead to begin meeting in July. That presents a special problem for theatrical film productions, which have a particularly long lead time and could be halted halfway by a strike.

Studios are considering rushing some productions so they finish filming by Oct. 31, or delaying the start of production until next year.

The result is a "de facto" strike, where production is compressed before the contract expiration, leading to a long period of inactivity even after a new pact is reached.

Despite the rhetoric, there are powerful incentives for both sides to avoid a strike. Network programming is losing viewers and advertisers are spending less on TV and more on the Internet.

Networks have also had success with reality shows such as "Deal or No Deal" and "Dancing With the Stars," leaving less room on the schedule for scripted shows.

"There is already lot of that kind of programming to fill space with in a worst case scenario," said Carolyn Finger, vice president of TVtracker.com, an Internet-based consulting firm.

The last time writers struck was in 1988, a bitter five-month walkout.

In 2001, studios also stockpiled scripts and accelerated production in anticipation of a strike. While a walkout was averted, thousands of technicians, carpenters and people who service the entertainment industry were out of work because of the de facto strike.

Bochco said a strike this year could be extremely difficult because TV and film operations represent a small part of the income earned by the huge conglomerates that own studios and networks.

"When you strike, you're not striking Universal or Paramount, or NBC," Bochco said. "You're striking News Corp. You're striking Viacom Inc., You're striking General Electric Co. Those are much deeper pockets and those are companies that can afford to hold out for a far longer period of time."


###

Again, courtesy of Peachy, more about the Writers Guild and a possible strike:

On May 18th the Writers Guild issued a press release summarizing its contract issues. At the bottom of the release you'll find a link to a seven-page PDF document that was sent to members. It's a quick (and IMO fascinating read) that shows a wide range of compensation concerns, from conventional television work to such new forms as ringtones.

On May 30th,a group of Comedy Central on-camera performers, producers, and showrunners expressed their solidarity with 35 Comedy Central writers, in support of Viacom negotiating with the Writers Guild. No other such statements/efforts reported on the Writers Guild site.

As I recall (from a post in the "CI in the Media" thread? -- anyone remember?) production for LOCI's seventh season starts this month. As noted in the previous post, the current Guild contract doesn't expire until October 31st.

AL

Yes and given that they use 8 days per episode (it was stated that Noth nad VDO each have 88 work days in an 11 episode contract, there is no way they will make it further than the half way mark of the season (I think that's why SVU kept going as they shoot some episodes tandem - two episodes simulataneously, CI couldn't keep filming because VDO had other film comittments). One thing to be clear about, I don't know whether having scripts in hand when the strike occurs will help them or not, as I'm not sure whether the members of other unions (guilds) will honour the strike and refuse to cross picket lines. IF so a prolonged strike could really hurt the behind the scenes workers.

Long or short, a strike of any kind will wreak havoc with the TV schedules for scripted shows on network and cable TV stations. I hope the renewal of LOCI and its move to USA with the actors agreeing to return with no raises doesn't turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory. With so much at stake for everyone involved in the process of creating a TV show and putting episodes on the air, I just can't believe greed and foolishness could prevail to derail a seventh season of LOCI and new episodes of other shows.

NBCU writes the first major advertising deal for the new season, benefitting the NBC broadcast network, USA Network, and other units. Commercial ratrings + DVR playback is the metric that will count, not program ratings. (Broadcast and cable networks have been resisting this new, combined metric to set ad rates.)

AL
--------------------

NBC, Group M Strike Out At Upfront
with $1 Billion Deal

by Wayne Friedman
Media Daily News
Thursday, June 14, 2007

NBC UNIVERSAL'S MASSIVE GROUP M upfront deal may have amounted to an eye-popping nearly $1 billion agreement, but the details of the pact might be less starry-eyed. First, media executives believe NBC got lower cost-per-thousand viewer price increases than the marketplace is currently estimating, in the 6% to 7% increase range over last year's upfront market program pricing.

That would be well below the double-digit CPM increases that networks like NBC were originally asking for next season's programming, according to media agency executives--and lower than what other networks such as ABC, Fox and CBS, realistically hope to get, in the 8% to 9% range.

Secondly, Group M's deal with NBC might not be a trend for the market as a whole. NBC isn't in the best of situations--being in fourth place among the big four networks, as well as recently undergoing a change in senior programming chiefs. Group M's decision to go to NBC was a price opportunity, say executives.

Third, while a billion dollars sounds big, veteran media agency executives say an $800 million deal actually isn't that large. One executive says $600 million could go to the NBC network; about $200 million for the USA Network cable group; approximately $20 million for Telemundo; and finally perhaps $10 million for all NBC's digital platforms.

This isn't to say there weren't gains by both parties. NBC may not have gotten the big price increases, but considering the network had perhaps the highest--along with Fox--average CPM program prices among 18-49 viewers, getting a 6% or 7% increase is pretty good, especially if ABC and Fox grab 8% or 9% CPM increases.
"It's not so terrible," says one veteran cable advertising sales executive. "Everybody got something. It's a realistic reflection of the marketplace."

From Group M's point of view, it got NBC and its cable networks to agree to upfront deals being based on the commercial ratings plus three days of DVR playback metric.

Another media executive merely shrugged when hearing about the deal. "The dollar volume is under-whelming," said one executive. "The deal isn't a shocker. Group M is hoping this kick starts the market."

Group M wants the rest of the industry to rally around its commercial ratings plus three days of DVR viewership metric. Group M has been vocal that this apply not just to broadcast networks, but all cable networks as well.

Commercial ratings have been a point of contention for many cable networks, saying they would rather stick with deals guaranteed on program ratings--at least until next season, when there is more research to analyze.

The NBC-Group M deal includes all media units at NBC Universal, including digital platforms as well as brand entertainment deals for some 60 to 75 upfront clients that Group M represents through its agencies, including its big three--MindShare, Mediaedge:cia, and Mediacom.

Executives say NBC syndication shows could be included in some future part of the deal.

Group M and NBC spokespeople would only confirm that a deal had occurred between the two--but not any details.

###

Animaltalker,

In past Guild strikes, haven't other union workers refused to cross picket lines? I seem to recall that being the case. And isn't just about everyone on the set of a TV show a member of some kind of union?

AL

Morning Annabelle,

Super good start to this thread and providing information for members on all the areas that will impact TV, including CI.

Here's a followup article on your earlier advertising info.

Excerpt:
NBC kick-starts
upfront with a big deal

An $800 million-plus ad package with Group M

By Toni Fitzgerald
Jun 14, 2007


"The broadcast upfront market has finally broken, led by the least likely of networks, fourth-place NBC.

In what was a coup for both, NBC and Group M, the WWP buying arm, reached an $800 million-plus ad deal for the upcoming season that includes media buys on NBC but also spans NBC Universal cable properties Sci Fi and Bravo and Spanish-language broadcast network Telemundo, as well as digital components.

As the weakest of the Big Four, NBC was not expected to lead the upfront, as it had in years past when it was the top broadcast network. That honor was expected to go to either Fox, which won the season in 18-49 viewers, or ABC, which came in third.

Terms of the deal are not being disclosed, but presumably NBC settled for less than the 10 to 12 percent CPM price increases it had been asking for, as the network with the least negotiating leverage of the Big Four in this year's upfront. It's also not known how much broadcast inventory was included in the deal.

Last year, NBC actually cut its pricing, by a reported 6 percent, and it ended up making deals valued at some $1.9 billion, down more than $1 billion from the years when it was the top-rated network and fetching the most desirable deals.Going into this upfront, the sense has long been that it will come in modestly above last year's $9 billion, up several percentage points at best, but with buyers facing substantial pricing increases, in the 10 percent-plus range, as the networks attempt to offset declines in available rating points resulting from falling ratings.

In an encouraging development, buyers and network sellers have agreed on a new currency based on commercial ratings and some DVR viewing, termed commercial plus three day. The NBC-Group M deal was struck using the new currency..."

Full article at:

http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman2/p..._a_big_deal.asp

PeachyBC

Thanks Peachy.

Just to give everyone a little more background here's a link to a Media Daily News piece posted yesterday explaining the shift in ad spending, away from TV networks (which has been down in particular) to newer outlets like the Internet. In that context the NBCU deal really is an accomplishment, despite some derision at the size and terms by some outside of NBCU.

Personally I see every nickel in the NBCU coffer as a contribution toward LOCI's payday. ;-)

AL

P.S. From the same publication group, here's some background about DVRs and their forecasted effect on audience measures.

From Peachy, an interesting (and relevant to LOCI fans) sidebar to the current Writers Guild contract issues:

In May 2005, the WGA began a major effort to organize writers for reality shows -- you know, those supposedly "spontaneous" and "unscripted" series in which ordinary people compete to survive the wilderness, marry millionaires, etc. To protect this conceit networks and production companies have denied that writers are involved, and so those scripting these shows haven't been protected in their workplaces by Writers Guild membership.

As part of this ongoing WGA campaign a large number of TV writers and producers signed a petition to support the recognition (and organizing rights) of reality "storytellers." Among the signers: Rene Balcer and Warren Leight.

From this I believe we can infer that LOCI (and the L&O franchise shows) will act as union shops during any Writers Guild strike -- that production will shut down on these sets until a new contract is reached.

Annabelle Leigh

NBC Universal has changed its name.

Excerpt:
June 14, 2007

NBC's NUTS No More
By James Hibberd

"NBC’s studio is no longer NUTS.

NBC Universal has changed the name of NBC Universal Television Studio to Universal Media Studios.

The change expands the division’s brand to suggest all digital media platforms rather than focusing on television, and rids the company of a division moniker commonly abbreviated as “NUTS.”
“NBC Universal is the premier content company on the planet, and this name change reflects our TV studio’s natural evolution as digital distribution expands and more platforms need premier ideas and programming,” said Ben Silverman, newly appointed NBC Entertainment and studio co-chair..."


http://tvweek.com/news/2007/06/nbcs_nuts_no_more.php

PeachyBC

The ad game...


Excerpt:
June 9, 2007

TV Upfront Takes Its Baby Steps
Ad Plans Exchanged, But Players Go Slow
By Jon Lafayette

"Media buyers showed some of their cards to the broadcast networks as television's upfront advertising market began to stir last week.

"The dancers are slowly entering the dance hall," said John Miles, director of investments at MediaCom, adding that it is still early and "It's tough to get a full picture."

The market got off to a sluggish start as the industry waited to absorb new ratings information from the Nielsen Co. that measures how many people watch the commercials within a program.

The ratings also count people who watch the commercials after they air using digital video recorders. With ratings covering same day, one, two, three and seven days' worth of playback, the math has become considerably more complex.

Most agencies sent some of their clients' budgets to the networks last week, two weeks after the networks presented their fall pilots to advertisers.

The budgets, which say how much clients plan to spend and what shows they want spots to appear in, are becoming increasingly complex because they now also cover other aspects of a media buy, including product placement and digital extensions..."

Full article at:

http://tvweek.com/news/2007/06/tv_upfront_...s_baby_step.php

PeachyBC

Congratulations, Annabelle!
This thread has made Viewer Buzz!!!!!

Oh excellent!!! CONGRATS ANNABELLE!! Thank you letting us know, Linda!

Peachy

Congratulations Annabelle Leigh! This is a thread to interest all the visitors to the site, who love shows and worry about the industry.
Mari

News & Developments That May Change
What We See On TV

Note: This bill is a response to a recent federal appeals court rejection of an FCC ruling on language (see penultimate paragraph, in boldface, below.) The ruling had been challenged in an action brought by the four broadcast TV networks.

Five creative guilds, including AFTRA and the WGA, oppose further content regulation in general, on freedom of expression grounds.

Annabelle Leigh
------------------------
From The New York Times

June 14, 2007
House Bill Aims to Curb Indecent TV Programs
By REUTERS
Filed at 3:51 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Lawmakers introduced a bill on Thursday aimed at protecting children from indecent television programs by forcing cable and satellite providers to offer a modified form of la carte programming or make other changes in the way they operate.

Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski of Illinois, and Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry of Nebraska introduced the measure.

Also supporting the legislation is Kevin Martin, chairman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, a longtime advocate of so-called a la carte programming which would allow parents more control over what their children watch.

A la carte programming would allow consumers to pay for the channels they wish to receive.

The bill would force cable and satellite television operators to comply with one of three options.

Companies could offer an "opt-out" a la carte option, requiring them to make refunds to consumers for unwanted channels in a programming package.

Under a second option, cable operators could create a package of child-friendly programs, news and sports that omits channels with more mature content.

The third option would be for cable companies to comply with the same rules that govern broadcasters, which are restricted from airing indecent material between 6 a.m. and 10 p.m. Those restrictions do not now apply to cable or satellite services.

"Americans deserve greater control over content and their cable bills," FCC Chairman Martin said at a news conference with the lawmakers. "Our message today is very simple: No consumer should have to pay for content they do not wish to receive. Period."

But the cable industry said evidence showed that a mandated a la carte regime would result in higher prices and less diversity in programming.

"Instead of resorting to unnecessary mandates that would eliminate educational, family, religious and other quality networks, consumers have a wide variety of parental controls ... which would allow them to control content," said Brian Dietz, spokesman for the National Cable & Telecommunications Association. The group represents the country's biggest cable operators and programmers.

The National Hispanic Media Coalition and National Congress of Black Women echoed the cable industry's concerns and said the bill would snuff out minority programming. Religious network 'The Inspirations Networks' called the bill a recipe for disaster and said religious and family programming would be among the first to be harmed in an a la carte regime.

The legislation will most likely face an uphill battle as a similar bill introduced by Lipinski in 2006 died before it reached committee.

"I believe there is more momentum right now," Lipinski said. "People are becoming more and more upset by what they are seeing on TV. There is more desire to look for solutions that can be done."

The FCC's crackdown on indecent content on broadcast television was dealt a blow earlier this month when a federal appeals court rejected the FCC's view that expletives uttered by celebrities during the 2002 and 2003 Billboard Music Awards broadcasts violated decency standards. Martin said on Thursday the agency had not yet decided if it will appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The new bill is also supported by Parents Television Council, Consumers Union and Concerned Women for America.

###

Gosh.

Thanks Linda (and Peachy and Mari).

Please remember that this thread is open to posts (and discussions) from everyone. And I do hope it brings more attention to our LOCI board.

AL

Actually, go read what they've got written in Viewer Buzz. It'll make you blush, AL. I blushed for you.

What makes this even more compelling news is that this is such a newborn thread. Less than a week old and already garnering attention! Be very proud.

---------------------------

From Daily Variety
June 18, 2007

WGA goes for a spin
Guild wary of upcoming negotiations

By DAVE MCNARY
In an indication of how contentious next month's negotiations may be, the WGA West is warning members about upcoming spin from studios and nets. In short, the guild's already declared that it doesn't believe much of anything that's likely to be said by the studios and networks.

In response, the lead negotiator for the companies has asserted the WGA's leaders are singing the same old song -- a tune out of touch with fast-changing showbiz realities.

In a two-page essay in Written By, the WGA West's official monthly mag, assistant exec director Charles Slocum dissects each of the likely arguments by studios and nets, indicated in italics:

• "Threats vs. Opportunities."
• Slocum notes the argument is that new methods of distribution threaten existing ones. But the same companies tout wide-open potential when tubthumping their prospects to Wall Street. "The Wall Street optimism is closer to the truth," he adds.
• "We Are Under Siege From Piracy."
• "Piracy is our shrinkage," Slocum responds. "Let's minimize it, but it's no argument against residuals."
• "Stockpiling will dilute a strike threat."
• "This rhetorical gambit is at least three decades old," he writes. "It's never altered the course of negotiations."
• "We are losing money."
• "Perhaps the granddaddy of rhetorical offerings is the bromide that they are losing money in this terribly unprofitable entertainment business," Slocum writes. He counters that there's more biz than ever, even for nonhits.
• "We need to study the issue."
• "A great gambit to try and put off the biggest issue in negotiations is to study it," Slocum notes, adding that there are plenty of existing formulas for paying writers, appropriate to whatever the revenue source is.

Slocum's essay was published a few weeks after Nick Counter of the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers dismissed the WGA's 25-item wish list as "an assault on the entire industry."

Of the essay, Counter told Daily Variety, "Mr. Slocum is simply wrong if he really believes that nothing in our industry has changed. The fact is that everything has changed. Everything is different."

And Counter signaled again that he'll be pushing hard for a revamp of the residuals system -- with payments coming only when shows break into the black -- when negotiations launch July 16.

"We refuse to be like other industries -- such as the newspaper and music industries -- that failed to adapt to changes and so have cost themselves and their workers dearly," Counter said. "We are committed to making a deal that is fair to both sides, but no one should underestimate our resolve to keep our businesses competitive and healthy."

One might conclude, then, that a strike is inevitable when the contract expires Oct. 31.

Not at all, Slocum writes in an upbeat take at the end of the essay.

"Citing these bromides is not to trivialize the power of studios and networks -- we respect our bargaining partners," he adds. "As the cycle plays out, the point will be reached when problem-solving overcomes rhetoric and a deal is struck." Read the full article at:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117967101.html

###

News & Developments That May Change the Way We See TV

Note: NBC has been the leading site for video downloads of (some of) its broadcast programming. This week CBS announced it was stepping up efforts in this arena.

LOCI -- someday coming to a PC, laptop (Blackberry, iPhone. etc) screen near you? (Personally I wouldn't mind a little Bobby Goren in my pocket.)

AL
----------------------
From Media Daily
June 19, 2007

Over A Third of A Billion Served

NBC.COM HAS SERVED A THIRD of a billion video streams since the network first launched its online video player last October. The announcement was proudly made by Vivi Zigler, executive vice president, NBC Digital Entertainment and New Media. Presently, NBC.com offers full episode streaming for "Friday Night Lights," "Heroes," and "Last Comic Standing," among others.

Not satisfied with those numbers, though, NBC just partnered with widget maker Clearspring Technologies to increase the spread of its content throughout the Web. Through the partnership, users can now personalize widgets--carrying NBC news, entertainment, and sports--and post them on their own blogs, social networking profiles, Web sites, and even wikis.

###

Near-Unanimous Support for WGA Demands

By Jim Benson, Broadcasting & Cable, June 18, 2007

By an overwhelming margin, the combined membership of the Writers of Guild of America West (WGAW) and the Writers Guild of America East (WGAE) have approved the guilds' "pattern of demands" for upcoming contract negotiations with the Assn. of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) and TV networks.

Nearly 96% of the 3,176 guild members casting ballots ratified the demands, an increase of 32% over the lead up to the last WGA negotiations in 2004, according to the guilds. Negotiations are slated to begin July 16, with the unions' joint minimum basic agreement expiring Oct. 31.

The betting money in Hollywood is that writers want actors on their side in the event of a work stoppage and, if negotiations stall, the first industry strike since 1988 would wait until next summer, so that it would coincide with the expiration of pacts for the Screen Actors Guild and Directors Guild of America.

Commenting on the election outcome, John Bowman, chair of the WGA's 2007 Negotiating Committee and WGAW board member, said in a statement, "I am pleased our members have given this pattern such a clear vote of confidence. As the media conglomerates' revenues continue to grow, our objective is to negotiate a deal guaranteeing writers a fair share of an ever-growing pie. Whether it's on your big screen, a flat screen or a computer screen, it's all content – and writers, like other creative artists, should be fairly compensated for what they create."

Chris Albers, president of the WGAE, concurred, saying, "The two Writers Guilds may be separate unions, but our members couldn't be more in synch when it comes to defining the issues for the upcoming negotiation. I am thrilled that WGAE members joined WGAW members in giving the pattern of demands their almost unanimous support."

The principal focus of demands is new media, both the writing of new material for the Internet, and reuse of movies and TV shows on all non-traditional platforms. Industry executives have countered that they need as many new revenue streams as possible to cover rising production costs and keep the workforce working.

In addition, the guilds seek to expand their current jurisdiction in largely non-covered areas, such as reality television, animation, game shows and other non-fiction programming, an effort that has so far been largely futile.

###

So AL, are they saying that a strike wouldn't occur until Summer 2008, if at all? How would waiting until summer help the writer's cause? And during negotiations, would things be business as usual? Meaning, would the writer's be working & writing new scripts while talks were commencing?

Or am I reading this all wrong?

I think they're saying that to insure the other guilds are with them, and to give the strike the maximum impact on the industry, they'll wait until the contracts for the other guilds expire next summer. That way nobody has to worry about crossing picket lines, or stopping work simply in support of the writers -- the writers, actors, and directors would all be without contracts and on strike at the same time, insuring that absolutely nothing gets done in Hollywood.

And let's not forget, tv production doesn't halt over the summer - mainstream network shows are prepping for the next season, cable and network channels are running summer programming, and some shows (like daytime and talk shows) run all year round. A summer strike by all the guilds would bring all of that to a dead stop.

As for ongoing negotiations, I believe it's customary for the guild to continue working initially. The threat of a work-stoppage can be held as a bargaining chip during those talks (once the current contract expires, of course). As long as both sides are talking and making progress, I believe they will probably keep working, but with both sides aware that if they hit an impasse or the writers are disenchanted with the direction of things, they have the power to walk out.

Sidebar to Writers Guild contract negotiations

If you're a fan of Comedy Central programming, be aware that the WGA announced yesterday that it has succeeded in organizing writers for all of that cable channel's live action programming.

Because much of the material aired on these shows is topical Comedy Central is unable to stockpile programming to protect itself against the effects of a WGA strike.

So for those who need a regular fix of satirical news -- no "The Daily Show," or "The Colbert Report" -- should WGA members walk on October 31st.

AL

From all that I've been reading I believe CvlSrvnt's interpretation is on the money.

AL

Yes, thank you Cvl for answering my question clearly & concisely. And thank you AL for posting all of this valuable information.

And the possibility of not having "The Daily Show" or "The Colbert Report" to shed light on what is happening daily in our world of politics & entertainment? My husband will be beside himself.

Guess I'll have to go back to watching CNN for my world news if The Daily Show is hit by the strike.

Sidebar to the Writers Guild contract negotiations

The four major TV networks are wrapping up their upfront ad sales this week, and according to all reports, the market has proven to be strong. Despite the historical dispersion of viewers to cable TV and other media, broadcast networks still have the numbers sufficient to garner rate increases.

What does this say to us as viewers? Two things come immediately to mind:

(1) Broadcast TV networks are still rolling in dough; which (among other things) means
(2) making the "slipping revenues" argument to the Writers Guild (in contract negotiations beginning next month) won't wash at the bargaining table.

Such an argument is anticipated by the WGA. (See links in previous posts.)

A concise report on the upfront season appears in today's Variety.

Annabelle Leigh

News & Developments That May Change The Way We See TV

Perhaps you're already aware that, in just two years, free analog television will come to an end in the U.S. The FCC has mandated that all broadcast stations convert to digital technology by 2009 (or go dark), which means -- to receive broadcast TV in your home -- you'll need a way to decode digital transmissions. If you already subscribe to a cable service, you're set (because your cable provider will rent you a digital converter, if it doesn't already.)

But what about the approximately 22 million U.S. households that (right now) only receive TV transmissions the old-fashioned way -- antennas on their rooftops, "rabbit ears" on their sets? Are you living in one of them? What if you can't afford cable service (or a satellite dish and a digital TV)? Does that mean no more free TV?

Perhaps not, if the FCC acts on a new proposal that would guarantee free basic cable service to all U.S. citizens.

AL

Annabelle,

As I understand it, a provision has also been made that will provide a converter that people will be able to purchase and attach to their TV. The converter attachment is not supposed to be outrageously expensive.

PeachyBC

That's true, Peachy. Glad you brought it up. The cost I've seen most often is $40. In fact there's also an effort in the works to "grant" the $40 to U.S. citizens without cable or satellite TV.

As you may imagine, those broadcast TV networks are not willing to lose 22 million viewers. It's in their economic self-interest to make sure everyone who wants a set-top digital converter gets one.

AL

Annabelle,
In your opinion, do you believe that the writers guild will wait to take action until next year when they can enjoy the solidarity of the added bargaining power when the directors and talent will need to renegotiate, or do you think they will attempt to bargain by themselves this year with the sales information as strong as it is right now?

I'm not sure what my opinion is worth, Linda. However I do believe the WGA will bargain hard (starting in July) with the intent of striking on October 31st if no agreement is reached. Without the real threat of a strike, the July talks won't have a sense of urgency and are unlikely to resolve anything.

Because DGA and SAG contracts will be up for negotiation next year, I don't see members of those unions crossing picket lines if the WGA strikes in the fall. In other words, I think the WGA will get the solidarity they need when they need it.

Of course we all continue to hope that fairness and rationality will prevail in the July negotiations. Until we hear otherwise that's the chief assumption I'm going with.

AL

For the first time in years, I agree with the writers....Maybe it's because I've OD'd on reality tv and have a new appreciation for what they do.

News & Developments That May Change The Way We Use TV

From Sunday's New York Times a fascinating look into the future of television. Instead of just watching the virtual life of Bobby Goren unfold, we could put ourselves in it.

Annabelle Leigh
---------------------------
June 24, 2007

A Brave New World for TV? Virtually

By Dave Itzkoff

IF you can find him, Vincent Tibbett is precisely the sort of well-connected cultural liaison any emerging filmmaker should want to know. An employee of the Sundance Channel, he is as easily recognizable for his shaggy haircut and assertively casual attire as he is for the crowds of aspiring artists who follow him around, hoping to chat him up about cinematic trends, get him to evaluate their movies or simply score his e-mail address.

But if Mr. Tibbett seems a bit harder to pin down for a lunch date than the average in-demand tastemaker, that's because he doesn't exist on our plane of reality. He is an electronic avatar found only in Second Life, the popular online virtual community.

Just six months old, Mr. Tibbett is one experiment in the Sundance Channel's larger exploration of Internet-based virtual reality, a sort of canary down the mine shaft of a new technology that may or may not take hold among mainstream audiences.

And he is not alone. In the last year broadcast networks, cable channels and television content providers have all set up camp in virtual communities, where they hope that viewers who have forsaken television for computer screens might rediscover their programming online. Some outlets, like Showtime and Sundance, are establishing themselves in existing worlds; others, like MTV, are creating their own. Either way, if the wildest dreams of some very excited technology developers come true, virtual reality might finally be the medium that unites the passive experience of watching television with the interactive potential of the Web.

If that happens, the television industry — which has not been particularly speedy in adapting to the Internet revolution — sees an opportunity not only to recover lost ground from online competitors but also to take a lead, and in so doing create an entirely new environment in which to influence and sell to its audience.

"You want to be in this because you know, as a content provider, that this is where the future is going," said Quincy Smith, the president of CBS Interactive. "I don't look at it as science fiction. I look at it as the future of communication."

For decades ambitious programmers and designers have sought to establish virtual worlds like the one put forth in Neal Stephenson's influential 1992 novel, "Snow Crash," which imagines computer users interacting in a simulated three-dimensional world called the Metaverse. But only in recent years, as graphics-accelerator cards and broadband Internet connections have grown more affordable and ubiquitous, has it become possible even to approximate such an experience.

IN Second Life (secondlife.com), visitors to the Sundance Channel area can watch full-length feature films in a three-dimensional screening room or take part in an environmental forum; fans of Showtime's drama "The L Word" can meet the avatars of the show's stars and design their own floats for a virtual gay pride parade. In MTV's Virtual Laguna Beach (at vmtv.com) inhabitants can shop at digital versions of Emporio Optic and Laguna Surf and Sport or, at the click of a mouse, arrive in a virtual version of "The Hills," where they can then join the party at an electronic replica of the Los Angeles nightclub Area.

Pre-teenage viewers have a virtual playground to call their own too: Nicktropolis (nick.com/nicktropolis). Nickelodeon's two-dimensional community allows children (with parents' permission) to play virtual basketball, watch Nickelodeon shows, douse themselves in digital green slime and chat with SpongeBob SquarePants.

To a generation that has grown up with multiplayer online role-playing games like EverQuest and World of Warcraft, the interfaces of environments like Second Life and Virtual Laguna Beach will seem familiar: Users create for themselves a personalized three-dimensional representative called an avatar and are then set loose to explore the world and connect with other avatars.

But it's not just video game players who are signing up for virtual communities. Virtual Laguna Beach, introduced in the fall of 2006, claims nearly 890,000 registered users, primarily in the their teens or early 20s; Nicktropolis, which started in January, claims almost four million registered users, with a core audience between 6 and 14 years old; and the Sundance Channel's Second Life content attracts users between 25 and 54. (The average age of the more than 6.9 million inhabitants on Second Life is 32.)

As broadcasters and media companies have entered virtual spaces, among the earliest content they have provided residents has been, not surprisingly, television programming, which inhabitants can watch on two-dimensional movie and television screens that appear throughout the world. "It's obvious, but it gets fun," said Sibley Verbeck, the chief executive of the Electric Sheep Company, which creates programs and content for virtual worlds. "It starts being a more social experience."

As an example Mr. Verbeck pointed to a Second Life island his company created for Major League Baseball last summer where users could mingle during the All-Star Game and watch the home run derby. "People who came to mlb.com and watched online stayed for about, on average, 19 minutes," Mr. Verbeck said. "Whereas the people who came into Second Life, mainly to talk to each other and be in a crowd, they stayed for an average of two hours."

At minimum broadcasters want a presence in these virtual worlds because they know that significant numbers of their viewers are already visiting them. "We have to take our content to the community," Mr. Smith of CBS said. "We have to take it where the users are already."

Additionally television programmers see the games and social activities within their online communities as an opportunity for viewers — whether they are designing and selling their own fashion lines on Virtual Laguna Beach or building and wrecking cars on Virtual Pimp My Ride — to continue to engage with their brands long after the shows themselves are over.

But the television companies aren't the only entities creating content for these worlds. In open virtual communities like Second Life, which allow users access to the underlying computer code from which their universe is built, anyone who is sufficiently handy with 3-D graphics programs is free to design amusement park rides, pirate galleons or anything else that can be dreamed up, and to incorporate them into the environment.

The proprietors of these worlds say this freedom has profoundly altered the way their users experience the medium of television. "Television has created a public opinion that we are mostly consumers and not very creative," said Philip Rosedale, the founder and chief executive of Linden Lab, whose company started Second Life in 2003. "But that's simply an artifact of the technology of television. If people are given the ability to co-create, to make something using the pieces and parts of media, they will do it."

Already philosophical fissures have developed between the start-up companies offering open and unrestricted virtual worlds and the media giants that provide more closely moderated experiences.

Naturally, the people behind Second Life maintain that there is no such thing as too much autonomy. "We're free and crazy and chaotic," Mr. Rosedale said. "They're too controlled."

And the designers of MTV's virtual spaces say that people prefer some rules and some guidance. "You just need to have the right blend," said Michael K. Wilson, the chief executive officer of Makena Technologies, which helped to create MTV's virtual properties and operates There, an independent virtual community (there.com). "You can't make a comfortable world if at any time you could be accosted by somebody that was naked."

There is at least one additional benefit that the media companies derive from their controlled environment. Just as real-world corporations like Reebok and American Apparel have established virtual stores in Second Life, so too has MTV courted advertisers to its online universe. PepsiCo, for example, set up soda machines in Virtual Laguna Beach from which avatars could purchase and drink cans of digital cola.

And in return MTV can provide its sponsors with excruciatingly precise measurements of advertising data. For example, if a real-world athletics company builds a simulated shoe store in Virtual Laguna Beach, MTV can measure how many users stopped to look at the store, how many of those users went inside the store, how many users bought a particular pair of virtual sneakers, and then how many of those users ordered the same sneakers for themselves in real life.

"It's scary actually," said Jeff Yapp, an executive vice president of program enterprises for MTV Networks' music group. "It's almost Google on steroids."

FOR the media giants who missed out on the benefits of landscape-shifting online properties like MySpace and YouTube, virtual reality may be most valuable as a medium that can offer the combined benefits of a social-networking Web site and a video-sharing Web site, and might one day surpass both those technologies. (Tellingly, MTV developed its virtual worlds in a project code-named Leapfrog.)

"Suddenly, more than ever, these media companies are ready to innovate," Mr. Verbeck said. "They're trying to transform themselves into companies that can evolve with new technology."

And some particularly evangelical advocates of virtual reality foresee major evolutions occurring in less than a decade. "The entertainment experience that people have in 10 years will be substantially interactive," Mr. Rosedale said. "The argument that television will remain the dominant way we all use discretionary time, that is nonsense. That is over."

But other veterans of virtual-reality development are skeptical about the technology's potential for mass appeal. For more than 20 years F. Randall Farmer, a strategic analyst at Yahoo, has worked on numerous online communities, from Lucasfilm's Habitat, a rudimentary 1980s-era attempt at virtual reality, to current offerings like Second Life and The Sims Online. He also contributes to a blog called Habitat Chronicles (fudco.com/habitat), where he frequently airs his doubts about virtual reality's suitability to replace the existing World Wide Web.

"It's not going to change the fact that the best way for me to interact with my bank today is a Web site where it tells me my balance, and I push this button called transfer, and type in a number, and it moves between the two accounts," Mr. Farmer said in a telephone interview.

Still, Mr. Farmer said virtual reality could help programmers strengthen viewer loyalty to their shows through more limited interactive experiences. "I'm thinking more like an adjunct episode to a mystery-detective show," he said, "where you and your friends can go in and play the major characters in 'CSI,' and you solve the mystery together. But those are very constrained experiences."

Before that can happen, the virtual-world-building business has some real-life obstacles to confront. Its creators acknowledge that they need to make their worlds more user-friendly and their avatars easier to design.

And they expect to see a boom-and-bust cycle, much like in the earliest days of the Web, after which only a few providers of virtual-reality communities will survive. MTV Networks is already building another virtual community of interconnected music clubs modeled on downtown Manhattan, called Virtual Lower East Side (vles.com). CBS has contemplated the idea of creating a virtual world based on the "Star Trek" franchise.

In theory there is no reason that monolithic corporations with the resources and the technological know-how — a Time Warner or an NBC Universal — could not be among those left standing. But as the past history of the Internet suggests, it is rarely the company with the most money that rises to become the leader in an emerging field.

"There is no chance that a traditional media company can build this," said Mr. Smith of CBS, whose network recently participated in a $7 million dollar investment in Electric Sheep. "It's just as much about technology as it is about understanding a mass audience, and it's naïve to assume we can just go out and build it."

In the meantime some optimistic players in the virtual arena say that broadcast television and virtual reality need not cannibalize each other, and might someday learn to work together.

"Virtual worlds, when they're done well, they're taking people who watch 20 hours of television a week and turning them into people who spend 30 hours a week in the virtual world," Mr. Verbeck said. "I've never been involved with a technology where you can make people say 'Aha!' so consistently."

###

News & Developments That May Change What We See On TV

Here's what's in store in the new fall season. From Variety, contributed by Peachy:

Television tests its taboos

Broadcast networks push limits

By Brian Lowry
June 25, 2007

Networks and series creators regularly test boundaries of what is permissible, and the latest examples of this are found in the 25 primetime series scheduled to premiere this fall. Viewing those pilots underscores how subtly the bar this year is being raised (or lowered) in the effort to surprise and titillate viewers in ways that can confound the schemes of federal regulators, pandering legislators, watchdogs and occasionally the networks themselves.

The content in some fall shows will undoubtedly fuel those who claim TV is creating a decline in moral values -- fretting that will surely grow louder the closer we get to the 2008 election.

The saucy shows will also be used as further evidence that TV is undermining "family values" by such groups as the Parents Television Council, which fumed recently when an appeals court overturned a Federal Communications Commission indecency ruling. The council lamented that the decision "cleared the way for television networks to use the F-word and S-word in front of children at any time of the day."

Read the full article at:
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117967508.html

As much as I would love the idea of walking down a New York City street next to Bobby & Alex in a virtual dream, it would also bother me at some level. It's disturbing how much fantasy can take the place of reality. Can we trust the networks, who are already so influenced by profit margins, with this new medium?

Human beings need real, physical contact with other human beings. Nothing can or should replace that. And people need to realize that television & film are simply fantasy, a healthy diversion from the doldrums & problems of real life.

I must sound about 100 years old to some of you.

LOL DonnaLucy!

I was just about to say me thinks this is not my demographic group they're aiming at! Like I need to buy a virtual coke or virtual sneakers to get my entertainment. NOT.

The highlighted comments are very nice, very nice indeed.

PeachyBC

Sounds very much like The Matrix to me. IS reality really that bad? I'm about to get on my soapbox....Kids today geesh!

What next? Will they start coming out of the television into the living room? theres a new Doctor Who episode about that!!!

Anyway audience participation or interaction is nothing new. The setting may be new but the idea is as old as drama. you get it in the earliest drama as it was being performed in the market squares. You get it in Elizabethan drama when the actors sat on the front of the stage and conversed with people they knew in the audience and often walked through the audience speaking their lines. Anyone in London this summer can go and see that being done as it would have been done with Merchant of Venice at The Globe Theatre. Its great fun.

We have got so used to this idea that you sit back and watch passively but it wasnt always the case. Anyway you cant be passive with LOCI. You have to work at it!

That's so true about the market square performances of Shakespearean dramas. I remember reading about that in college. There are mystery dinner theaters in my area that also cater to an audience inclusion approach, in finding out who the killer is.

However, back then you indulged in your interacting with the theater cast members for 2 to 3 hours and then went back home to life's harsh reality. Today, with DVR's and computers, you can re enact this kind of virtual interaction again & again & again. There is no limitation and there are people who would abuse this to a very unhealthy level. I'm not saying we shouldn't have it, but I hope there will be imposed limits. And I don't mean financial in terms of skyrocketing the cost to make it non-affordable to most viewers. Rich people, especially rich teens who are unattended, especially need to be protected from themselves.

Anybody get the latest TV viewer survey? It was all about cable programs, which programs you watch, how you watch the programs (live or recorded), a whole long section on DVR use, etc. Very interesting after the news we've been following in this thread!

PeachyBC

Sidebar to Writers Guild contract negotiations

Actually less of a sidebar than the reverberating effect of a possible WGA strike on the film industry. See in particular the boldfaced paragraphs below, highlighting some of the complexities.

Annabelle Leigh
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From The New York Times

June 27, 2007

Hollywood Scrambles as Strike Looms

By Michael Cieply

LOS ANGELES, June 26 — In Hollywood's upper reaches this week, few are bothering to count past two. As in Adam Sandler has already booked his two "pre-strike" pictures, so let's try Vince Vaughn.

Though it's unclear whether the forthcoming contract expirations of the entertainment industry's writers, actors and directors will lead to a work stoppage over the next year, Hollywood is nonetheless frantically hedging its bets.

Producers, executives, agents and filmmakers are aware that even a hard-working star can most likely squeeze in no more than two movies before June 30 of next year, when the last of the deals end. After that date no studio wants to be caught with filming on its schedule, especially under expensive "pay or play" deals. (Such arrangements require companies to pay actors or others even if the movie isn't made.)

And that has turned moviedom's midsummer months into an unusually tense season. Deal makers are frantically trying to line up top actors for their presumed two-picture limit, even as they try to avoid thinking about the inevitable vacuum that will come after the contract expiration dates, with or without a strike, because no films are being set to shoot next July.

"We're trying to do in six months what we usually do in 12," said Patrick Whitesell, a partner with the Endeavor agency, which represents Mr. Sandler and others caught up in the chase.

Mr. Sandler, as it happens, is supposed to start "You Don't Mess With the Zohan" for Sony Pictures soon, and is probably locked up on "Bedtime Stories" for Disney after that. Mr. Vaughn, meanwhile, has been mentioned in connection with a half-dozen projects, but his plans are complicated by the prospect of a heavy promotional schedule for the comedy "Fred Claus," already shot and awaiting release by Warner Brothers in the fall.

The squeeze can be particularly painful for directors, who can easily invest 18 months in preparing, shooting and refining a picture, and may find themselves out of work for a year or more if they do not pin down studio, star and script in the next few weeks.

In one go-round, Paul Greengrass, finished with this August's "Bourne Ultimatum," with Matt Damon, a client of Mr. Whitesell's, has been trying to round up that star to shoot "Imperial Life in the Emerald City" for Universal and Working Title Films. But Mr. Damon is also looking at "The Informant," a conspiracy thriller to be directed by Steven Soderbergh for Warner Brothers.

If Mr. Damon commits to both, and everything falls into place with the studios, that would mean a long delay for "The Fighter," a Paramount boxing film that is being lined up as a possible project for him with the director Darren Aronofsky. For that one, however, Mr. Damon would have to contend with weight fluctuations that would be difficult to control on a tight schedule. (Mr. Aronofsky is simultaneously developing another project for Universal, a spokeswoman for him said.)

In another closely watched decision, Jim Carrey, who is represented by the Creative Artists Agency, has been juggling at least three contenders for his presumed two slots. One, "Believe It or Not!," would come from Paramount, with the director Tim Burton. Another, "I Love You Phillip Morris," would be independently financed, with the directors Glenn Ficarra and John Requa (who were writers of "Bad Santa"). Yet another, "Me Time," might come from Fox, but no director has yet been named. And still other projects could come into the mix.

A spokeswoman for Mr. Carrey declined to comment. In the Rube Goldberg exercise of Hollywood scheduling, little can be done without a final script. So the heat has been turned up lately on film writers to deliver the goods, even as their television-writing brethren are facing a different sort of pressure, to deliver extra episodes of television shows that will become a network bulwark against a possible writers' strike this fall. (The writers' contracts expire in October, while those of actors and directors end next June.)

"What we're seeing is a stockpiling" of dramatic episodes and an increase in strike-resistant reality programming, said Steven Katleman, a lawyer with the Greenberg Traurig firm, which represents a number of television actors, writers and producers. Mr. Katleman pointed, for instance, to a recent outsize order for 30 episodes of the NBC series "Heroes."

The studios' eagerness to book films that will be seen in late 2008 or the summer of 2009 has been particularly intense, given the unusual alignment of contract expirations and a broad expectation that writers and actors are bent on playing hardball on issues related to compensation for new forms of digital distribution.

"It's a pretty lethal combination," said Jack Kyser, senior vice president and chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation. Whether or not a real walkout occurs, Mr. Kyser said, the insistence that no film or television show be scheduled to shoot after next June will almost certainly cause a "de facto" strike.

A similar situation occurred in 2001, when studios shot extra shows and movies in the first two quarters of the year in advance of a negotiation with actors. Work then fell to a third of that level for the next several quarters, as measured by a count of filming days at locations around Los Angeles.

Things are even more complicated now, because actors, by accident of timing, are actually negotiating eight separate contracts over the next year, including those covering commercials and interactive work. Executives of the Screen Actors Guild declined to be interviewed about the scheduling of their various talks.

Asked about the rush to production, Barbara Brogliatti, a spokeswoman for the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents entertainment companies, said, "As we enter these negotiations, we are hoping for the best, but we have a fiduciary duty to prepare for the worst."

Given that major feature films require months of preproduction and may require 16 weeks or more in front of the camera, the "be prepared" spirit means that most big casting choices for the next two years' film schedule will soon have been made.

And Hollywood won't have much to talk about come spring, except labor negotiations, politics and the weather.

"Next year at Cannes, it's going to be dead," said Mr. Whitesell, referring to the telephone action that usually connects Hollywood festivalgoers with business at home. "I mean dead."

###

News & Developments That May Change The Way We Watch TV

From the July 3, 2007 New York Times -- a fascinating story on viewer experiments being conducted by our board host, NBC.

NBC's upfront deal for next year is based on ratings for commercials, not for the programs in which they're aired, plus DVR viewing within 72 hours of the original network broadcast. But that still leaves as contentious the issue of fast-forwarding through commercials while watching a program via DVR.

With DVR use on the rise it's an important point that may affect the future financial resources available to create quality scripted shows -- and that would affect us all, as viewers. It also suggests a potential alternative to the way Nielsen counts viewers now -- to me, an almost sci-fi possibility.

Annabelle Leigh
--------------

Engaging at Any Speed? Commercials Put to Test

By Louise Story
The New York Times
July 3, 2007

In new experiments for NBC, people are hooked up to sensors as they watch television, and researchers observe changes in their heart rate, palm sweat, eye movement and breathing patterns.

But the panelists are not watching just NBC programs. They are watching commercials — in fast-forward mode.

So far, the findings have been just what NBC hoped: judging from the biological reactions, the test subjects were just as engaged while watching fast-forwarded advertisements as they were while viewing opening scenes from the NBC show "Heroes" at regular speed.

And that conclusion — which is still preliminary — could have big implications for NBC and other networks as they negotiate rates for air time with advertisers. Although advertisers have steadfastly refused to pay the networks for viewers who fast-forward commercials, as more households buy digital video recorders like TiVo, the networks may one day argue that this system should change.

When it comes to fast-forward advertisements, "the assumption has always been that they have no economic value, that they have no communication value," said Alan Wurtzel, president for research at NBC Universal. "But the fact of the matter is we're learning that they are valuable."

The thesis flies in the face of the assumption among advertisers that their ads have no effect when played at a high speed on a DVR. Over the last month, as advertising agencies and television networks negotiated billions of dollars in deals for commercials during next year's season, executives who buy commercial time did not waver in their position that people who zap past the ads are of no value to them.

"Would we pay when they're fast-forwarding? No," said Jason Maltby, president and co-executive director for national broadcast at MindShare North America, an agency in the WPP Group that buys advertisements. "You've created a message that in theory requires 15 seconds or 30 seconds to get that selling message across. On a high-speed DVR, 30 seconds gets pushed down to 1.5 seconds with no audio. It just wouldn't work."

For decades, advertisers have paid for advertisements based on how many people see them — or how many "impressions" an advertisement receives, in industry terms. Now that technology has reshaped people's viewing habits, advertising executives are looking for other ways to quantify their audiences and gauge the impact of messages.

Some researchers said efforts like NBC's to find alternative measurements are a step in the right direction.

"Whether people watch or not is not a useful measure of anything," said Joe Plummer, chief research officer for the Advertising Research Foundation. "Exposure has very, very weak correlation with purchase intent and actual sales, whereas an engagement measure has high correlation and are closer to what really matters, which is brand growth and creating brand demand."

Media executives have long discussed the potential of using physical reactions and brain scanning to track their messages, and advances in medical research in the past few years have made this more practical. NBC is working with Innerscope Research, a small company in Boston that uses wearable sensors to translate physical responses into what the company calls "emotional engagement."

Panelists wear black-netted vests with tubes running out of them. Sensors on fingers measure sweat or "skin conductance," as the researchers like to say. A monitor picks up on heartbeats, and an accelerometer tracks movement when panelists wiggle in their seats or chuckle. A respiratory band can tell if the abdomen and chest stop moving — noticing when someone holds their breath, for example, in a scene of suspense.

Innerscope has developed its own scale for engagement that combines the biometric factors that it tracks. On a scale of 1 to 100, a 50 is neutral, and above 60 is engaged. In Innerscope's test for NBC, viewers of the first 20 seconds of live advertisements clocked in with a 66 engagement score and those fast-forwarding scored 68.

"People don't turn off their emotional responses while they're fast-forwarding," said Carl Marci, the chief science officer of Innerscope. "People are obviously getting the information."

Innerscope is working on a second study for NBC that will try to pin down which types of commercials generate the most engagement in fast-forward mode. Innerscope will monitor things like how often brands are shown during the advertisement, how quickly the camera cuts to new images, and whether audio is important in the storyline.

From there, NBC may be able to offer tips on how to make commercials stand out, even at rapid speeds.

"We can then go through our advertisers and help them optimize a commercial for fast-forwarding, while also not denigrating the quality while watched live," Mr. Wurtzel said.

Millward Brown, an advertising research company in the WPP Group, has also studied physical responses to television commercials. The company found that people who have already seen an advertisement will tend to experience the same emotional response when seeing the same advertisement again in fast-forward mode.

Fast-forwarding should not scare advertisers because consumers are engaged to some degree, just by the act of pushing the button, said Nigel Hollis, chief global analyst for Millward Brown.

"We probably pay more attention to doing that than we do when watching a regular TV program," Mr. Hollis said. "You're sitting there saying, 'when is the program coming back on?' You are actually attending to it."

But even if physiological measures become more accepted, media buyers said they do not see them replacing viewership ratings anytime soon.

"I can't imagine the logistics of actually buying and selling commercial time based on physiological responses," said Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis for Magna Global, an agency that buys ads in the Interpublic Group. "We need data that is projectable."

Mr. Wurtzel of NBC acknowledged it was early in the research process. But over time he hopes to expand bio-testing of commercials to the facilities NBC has used to test potential television programs in front of an audience. General Electric, the parent of NBC, has worked on security technology that can track people's facial expressions and follow eye movements. He said he may also put that to use.

In time, he said, he hopes to shift NBC away from discussing advertisements based on eyeball counts to something incorporating physiological measures and engagement. But advertising executives said they plan to go only so far.

"I would say I'm not ready to jump on cost per perspiration," said Mr. Maltby of MindShare.

###

could you or someone, talk more about the move to USA, as I do not seem to find the thread, and I do not know enough to start one, as I have lots of questions about this. thank you, ci lover88

Hi CIlover88,

We have a great deal of information about the CI move to the USA network -- both in the "CI in the Media" thread and in the "LOCI's Move to USA Network" thread.

Both of these threads are on the first page of the board. Here are the links to them.

"LOCI's Move to USA Network"

"CI in the Media"

Whatever USA network questions you still have, after reading up, please post them in the "LOCI's Move to the USA Network" thread.

Thanks,
PeachyBC

Board Members:

A reminder that next week brings a couple of key dates:

The Writers Guild contact negotiations begin this Monday, July 16th. If summer talks make headway an October 31st strike can be avoided -- of particular importance to scripted shows like LOCI (which likely won't have too many new episodes in the can by that date and could be forced off the air or to reruns for the strike's duration.) I'll be actively searching for any news of developments. If you know anything, please post on this thread. Thanks!

Emmy nominations will be announced this Thursday, July 19th. See the Emmy speculation thread for more information.

Annabelle Leigh

Update on Writers Guild contract negotiations

The following also analyzes the compound effect of possible strikes by the Directors Guild (DGA) and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG, which also bargains for the TV actors' union, AFTRA) when their current contracts conclude on June 30, 2008.

Note comments by NBC co-chair Marc Graboff.

So far, no WGA contract talks have been scheduled beyond this week.

Annabelle Leigh
-------------------------------

Hollywood readies for negotiations

WGA, studios prep for Monday talks

By Dave McNary
Variety
July 15, 2007

At a moment when all industry planning seems keyed to a possible strike, talks between Hollywood's talent guilds and their employers are finally about start.

The Writers Guild of America, studios and networks will launch Monday morning what are widely expected to be bitter negotiations at the Encino headquarters of the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers.

Pre-bargaining rhetoric has been particularly rancorous. Writers want a guaranteed cut of the revenues from new-media platforms and increased jurisdiction; companies are insisting they need to revamp the residuals system so that they can recoup before letting others share the wealth.

The two sides are at odds over the health of the business, with the WGA asserting that showbiz is in excellent shape via a bulletin mailed to its 12,000 members last week. But top execs warn of soaring costs, declining profits, audience fragmentation and a future resembling that of the battered music business.

The WGA's also deemed the companies' centerpiece demand -- a contract extension, with a concurrent study to institute a recoupment-based residuals system -- as a non-starter. The companies also want the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild to agree to similar proposals; SAG's already said it's not interested.

When the WGA and company negotiators formally meet for the first time Monday, they'll spend the first day presenting their complete proposals. Only the first week of negotiations have been scheduled.

At this point, the two sides appear so far apart that it would not be a surprise if there's no deal when the WGA's current three-year contract expires on Oct. 31.

The Writers Guild's gone past the expiration in the last two negotiations -- five months past in 2004, when it wasn't able to budge the companies to sweeten DVD residuals and opted for the DGA to push that proposal. The DGA, however, reached a deal bumping up health-care contributions with no change in the homevid formula; the WGA and SAG accepted similar contracts soon thereafter.

The inability to improve the homevid formula during a time when DVD revenues were soaring was particularly irksome to the current WGA leaders -- so much so that they ran on a platform in 2005 promising a more confrontational approach to negotiations and easily won. A few days later, they fired longtime topper John McLean and replaced him with organizing chief David Young.

The negotiations also represent a test for Young, whose background prior to joining the WGA in 2004 was in the garment and construction industries. His focus has been on building guild unity, staging public events to take on employers, organizing non-union work and bolstering WGA research -- tactics that have alarmed the companies.

The harder line by WGA leaders has provoked worries that there will be a writers strike on Nov. 1, once the contract has expired. But it's much more likely that the WGA will tell its members to keep on working under terms of the expired contract, just as it did three years ago.

The SAG and DGA contracts both expire on June 30 -- a date that's now cemented in the minds of feature producers and execs as they maneuver to get projects completed by then. If either guild strikes, the impact would be profound, with most production closing immediately.

If there's no deal with the WGA, it's more likely that the companies would prefer to make some kind of deal with the directors. The DGA has struck once, for a few hours; it prefers to start negotiations at least six months prior to expiration, contending that's when companies will give the best deal in exchange for labor peace and security; and it prides itself on taking a realistic approach to negotiations.

SAG's situation

SAG is much more of a wildcard.

Control of its board room shifted to the more assertive Membership First faction two years ago, but moderates could regain control in the upcoming elections in September.

In addition, SAG's famously fractious board put aside their differences last fall and hired Doug Allen, a longtime No. 2 exec at the NFL Players Assn., as its top exec. Allen already has strongly endorsed the WGA's brush-off of the companies' proposal for an extension and study.

Allen also has demanded that AFTRA give up its 50-50 participation on the negotiating committee since its contracts contribute less than 10% of the earnings generated under the deal. AFTRA has resisted, and sorting out that dispute may mean SAG will need more time to get ready for bargaining.

The companies also will have to deal with AFTRA's network code contract, which expires Jan. 31 and has already been extended by 2½ months. That pact covers all TV programming except network dramatic primetime.

For much of the town, memories of the last WGA strike in 1988 have receded -- even though it lasted five months, delayed the start of the fall season and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. By comparison, SAG's strike in 2000 remains a fresh memory, and there's still bitter debate within the guild as to the effectiveness of the tactics and the impact of the strike.

It took a six-month work stoppage for the ad industry to drop its demand of elimination of residuals for TV commercials in favor of buyouts and for SAG to drop its demand for cable residuals. SAG gained Internet jurisdiction and a major hike in cable buyouts, while the ad industry gained practical experience in shooting non-union commercials.

Further complicating the picture is the fact that SAG and AFTRA agreed last year -- before Allen came aboard -- to a two-year extension of its commercials contract in order to conduct a study on new compensation models, given the expansion of new media in commercials. That deal's similar to what the AMPTP is now proposing on the film-TV side.

The uneasiness over the labor situation dominated a Friday session at the TV Critics Assn. press tour as NBC Entertainment co-chairman Marc Graboff, Warner Bros. Television Group prexy Bruce Rosenblum and lead negotiator Nick Counter repeatedly expressed frustration over the current WGA agreement.

The trio stressed their view that key aspects of current guild compensation agreements are more than four decades old and no longer apply to TV's fast-changing business models, given such trends as ad-skipping, audience fragmentation and using digital platforms.

"We need to know what the pie is before we can start divvying it up," Graboff said, adding that it's still uncertain how consumers want to find and watch TV programs.

Graboff also noted that the digital world's so uncertain that most deals are only for a single year. He also declared that his network is ready for a strike but declined to offer specifics as to what programs will air as replacements once WGA-covered programming isn't available.

"You're not going to see a test pattern," he added. "There will be a full schedule."

Rosenblum asserted the industry needs up to three years to figure out how the new model will function financially in terms of what the consumer wants -- and where the ad industry will want to spend money.

"It's a brand-new business," Rosenblum added. "In 24-36 months, we'll have a much clearer picture."

Rosenblum also contended that if the nets and producers can have flexibility in using digital platforms, the industry can reduce the 85%-90% failure rate of new shows. That would enable the industry to become more profitable, to the benefit of consumers and WGA members.

The execs also took several potshots at recent comments by John Bowman, chief of the WGA negotiating committee, including assertions that Hollywood accounting can't be trusted. Counter insisted that the WGA has extensive access to company numbers via profit-participation agreements along with health and pension reports; Rosenblum stressed that the AMPTP's seeking to revamp residuals so that the payments would be triggered once basic costs are recouped, adding that the proposal is not tied to a net profits formula.

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The negotiations have begun, both sides reported to be far apart, but they have tabled their positions. The producers described the initial demands from the writers, for a percentage of the monies garnered beyond the original showing, (including DVD and Internet uses) as lkely to "impose unreasonable costs and draconian restrictions'. The WGA negotiation team, including 'Desperate Housewives' creator Marc Cherry and 'Dreamgirls' writer-director Bill Condin, countered that the companies "always try to pain us as unreasonable and bellicose". There is a recap of the preparations that studios can take in the case of a strike, and a recap of the 1988 work stoppage.
Negotiations Begin: Two Sides Far Apart
Mari

Draconian and bellicose all in the same article?! From the number of non-scripted, reality based programs on television, I would have thought the writers and producers wouldn't expect the viewing public to understand that many SAT vocabulary words in so short a press release.