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http://www.oregonlive.com/living/oregonian....xml&coll=7TV writers' strike may not be a bad thing
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Oregonian
T he first thing you need to know about the writers' strike poised to hit the television industry next week is that it's not necessarily bad news for TV watchers.
In fact, an industry-freezing strike might be the best thing to hit American TV since the 1988 writers' walkout.
We'll get to that later. But first, let's take on the bad news.
The 5,000-plus writers' guild, which also represents movie writers, has been unable to reach an agreement with the alliance of producers about how writers should benefit from income generated by digital sales of the shows they write.
Last week more than 90 percent of the guild's members voted to approve a strike if their leaders decide one is necessary after their contract expires Wednesday, Oct. 31.
Once a strike is called, all writing for TV shows will stop immediately. Although many producers prepared for the strike by commissioning far more scripts than usual during the summer and early fall, the extra stock will only keep their shows in business for another few weeks. Most prime-time production will dwindle by early winter, then grind to a stop.
Assuming the strike continues for a while -- and the last major walkout, in 1988, dragged on for 22 weeks -- most prime-time shows will shift into repeats by midwinter, or else disappear altogether.
Fans of Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" and "The Colbert Report" will be the first to feel the pain, as their topical, writer-centric programs either vanish or shift into formats that emphasize guests, rather than prepared material. Late-night talk shows -- Jay Leno's "The Tonight Show," David Letterman's "Late Show" and Conan O'Brien's "Late Night" and so on -- will go through similar mutations.
Soap operas will burn through their backlog of finished shows (generally four weeks' worth) and then either go into repeats or leave the air. And while prime-time dramas and comedies that are already on the air will continue apace for weeks, midseason entries, such as ABC's "Lost" and Fox's "24," will be limited to either six- or eight-week mini-seasons, or else take the year off.
News writers are covered by separate agreements, so their work will continue. Only faster and far more furious as they spread out to fill the holes in the schedule. Expect blanket coverage of each and every celebrity meltdown and real-world disaster, and plenty of midseason football, basketball and hockey games, too.
Don't forget reality shows. Already beloved by the networks for being so inexpensive to produce, the quasi-documentaries and talent shows will become all the more valuable, thanks to their nonstriking writers. The "Lost" loss will surely be the "Survivor" gain.
All across the industry and on both sides of the screen, a writers' strike will be jarring and unsettling. A crisis, to be sure.
But crises can be invigorating, too, particularly for people locked into patterns that have grown stale or dysfunctional.
TV executives love to talk about taking chances and thinking outside the proverbial box. But once a strike truly takes hold, the brave talk is going to have to stop -- the network box will have exploded into powder.
All of their usual patterns, rules and expectations will be gone. You'll start seeing faces and programs you never thought you'd see on American TV. The networks may actually begin to surprise you.
Already, NBC is talking about replacing its own version of "The Office" with episodes of the original, and arguably better, British version.
Other non-mainstream shows, imports and domestic, may get a shot at the vast network audiences. Meanwhile, the late night talk show hosts will have the chance to prove their mettle as the stand-up comics most of them once were.
Recall how "Tonight Show" host Johnny Carson and then-"Late Night" host David Letterman reached unforeseen heights of weirdness, and often hilarity, by facing their audiences night after night with almost no prepared material. Letterman, famously, got a shave on the air. Carson was just his charming, bone-dry self.
And that's not the reason why so many network executives, top producers and even some creative types aren't exactly dreading the prospect of a Hollywood writers' strike.
The producers' keening need for new scripts early in the season has already thrown opportunities to relatively inexperienced writers who now have earned money and credits they otherwise wouldn't have received. Holes in the network schedule may open up showcase slots for shows that were either canceled quickly or never quite made it onto the air.
Meanwhile, network executives, already stung by the distinct lack of buzz and viewers for the new fall shows, are purported to be less than dismayed at the chance to pull the plug on so many underperforming shows at once. Usually such rampant cancellations imply failure on the part of the execs. In the midst of a strike it's someone else's fault: a blameless do-over.
Still, what really matters for viewers is what does, and doesn't, end up on the screen. No one likes the prospect of having their favorite shows vanish into the limbo of an open-ended labor dispute. But this time around you've got a whole Internet full of entertainment options to explore. And shelves already groaning with DVDs. Once the networks figure that out they'll have to redouble their efforts to draw viewers back to their own corner of the media universe.
It's impossible to say what they might come up with. And that's a good thing.
Peter Ames Carlin: 503-221-8562; petercarlin@news.oregonian.com