This is your place to discuss how Chuck is faring in the ratings war...Part 1 can be found here.

JD/Forum Moderator

that would be a dream for us chuck fans and yvonne fans...and dwts is suppose to end next week...so, hopefully the show will grab a couple more viewers b4 the x-mas episode...for the 3D glasses i personally think it will help the show if chuck was on the cover of entertainment weekly and tv guide for that week...i mean ew can have different covers for the show...that is a great way to grab attention...but if they do package the glasses with chips, soda or etc; that would be a little wierd in my opinion...the mags would fit perfectly since they're TV related...

I hope they hand the 3D glasses out on crowded street corners and such... I think that if we could pull in 15 million people, over doubling the norm for now, I would be really, really pleased. Heck, I'd take anything in double digits...

Today's USA Today included the final live prime-time Nielsen ratings for the week of November 10th - November 16th. Chuck vs. The Ex had 6.3 million viewers compared to 6.7 million viewers two weeks before and came in 54th place for the week as compared to 57th place for the fifth episode.

In case you were wondering, NBC averaged 7.7 million viewers for the week (and moved into third place with only Sunday Night Football (#2) ranked in the top 20). Also, in order to make the top 20 most watched shows for the week, it took 11.6 million viewers, top 30 - 9.8 million, top 40 - 8.2 million, and top 50 - 7.0 million. The source of USA Today's information is Nielsen Media Research.

Well, now that I made my great prediction that the ratings would be down for episode 207, thus continuing the downward ratings trend starting with 205 and continuing with 206 (after following what seemed to be tremendous upward momentum from the first four episodes this season), I am now all of a sudden really into TV ratings. LOL!

Anyway, before I talk about Chuck ratings, just a side bar here to let everybody know that, in my Chuck ratings research, I ironically happened upon a really great show that I had heard about before, but only really just discovered yesterday -- Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. I've only watched the first four episodes of season 1, (yeah, illegally online -- shhh, don't tell anybody), and it is pretty damn fantastic, I think. It doesn't have the comedy and quirkiness of Chuck, but it matches the action and then some (for those of you into that), and like Chuck, it has a kick-ass lead female character named Sarah. LOL! The one big advantage it has over Chuck (at least from the buzz -- I may change my mind after I've gotten through all the episodes) is that the Sarah Conner show runners can apparently run a series without allowing for lazy writing to sneak in and mercilessly kill off fantastically developed characters right and left (my prediction is the Sarah Walker character is next up on the chopping block in upcoming episodes of Chuck, as the writers have her inexplicably pine after a closeted gay DICKWEED named Chuck, who will be back to wanting to use Sarah again to cover and hide his latent homosexuality very soon, I am sure), but I digress...

Okay, back on the topic of Chuck ratings... I feel in my heart that 205 killed the momentum of the show (along with the Jeff character), then 206 actually murdered the show (along with the Chuck character) in such a way that there may have been a glimmer of hope of reviving the show (and the character Chuck) with a miracle "rise from the dead by cheating, but nevertheless acceptable" episode, that is, if a certain plot line was followed, but then 207 did not provide the miracle -- it instead put the nails in the coffin. I'm guessing we cremate the series in 208 with 0% chance of it coming back from the dead, at least not in any recognizable, likable form.

I guess all this interest in ratings all of a sudden is because I am hoping that the Chuck ratings actually reflect this trend in lazy writing (followed by show runners not on top of the situation to fix the minor problems) so that it is 100% unambiguous exactly how, when, where, and why this show was brutally murdered. It would be an awful waste if this show gets canceled this year due to waning interest and bad ratings, yet it is never made clear exactly where things went wrong so that the guilty party or parties (whoever they are) escape unscathed only to go on and murder other TV shows. In fact, I hope Chuck is used as a primary example in "how not to handle a hot, budding TV romance in the second season of what would easily have been a top-20 mega-hit if done properly" in TV production classes for centuries to come.

With that said, I first want to say that I am having a hard time believing that the number of viewers went up this week from last week -- or at least that the shares went up so that Chuck was stealing a larger percentage of viewers from other shows. Either way, I will withhold judgment until I see the final "live numbers" and "share numbers" for episode 207, and I have no idea where to get these numbers consistently.

From what I gather, Nielsen puts out many different ratings statistics for any given TV show, but the three most common raw data numbers seem to be:

1) Live (viewers who watched the show as it aired)
2) Live + SD (live viewers plus people who recorded the show, but nevertheless still watched the show on the "same day" that it aired)
3) Live + 7 (live viewers plus people who recorded the show and watched the show some time within 7 days after the show aired)

And the most common "worked up" numbers seem to be:

1) points (the percentage of TV's tuned in to the show relative to all TV's in the US, regardless of whether the other TV's are on or off)
2) shares (the percentage of TV's tuned in to the show relative to all TV's in the US that are actually on at the time the show airs live)

The "points and shares" numbers are usually broken down further into various age ranges so that you get more detail about the demographics of your audience.

The Nielsen numbers we keep seeing posted here seem to come mostly from "TV By the Numbers" available at http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008. They usually post somewhat rough "Live + SD" raw numbers, and somewhat rough "points and shares" numbers the day after Chuck airs.

The problem is, I really don't trust the "SD" fudge factor -- mostly because it just seems like a number that can be too easily manipulated, at least much more so than the classic "live" number alone. I'd rather just look at the live numbers, especially if I am just trying to track a possible trend in episode viewership within a series, without worrying about what the competition is doing.

I also don't like the rough "points and shares" numbers that come out before all the raw live numbers are in, but as stated above, I'm just working with what I have from the TV by the Numbers web site, which only seems to give raw points and shares numbers the day after airing, plus the more accurate "total live viewing" numbers a week later, but never both (i.e., never rough, live viewing numbers the day after or more accurate points and shares numbers a week later).

Anyway, from a purely statistical point of view, I only really want to look at two numbers to see how Chuck is doing:

1) Accurate, complete live numbers only (no SD or 7-day factors). This is to spot any potential trends from one episode to the next within the Chuck series, without really worrying about the competition and without the extra added complication of what I think may be relatively inaccurate SD or 7-day numbers.

2) Accurate, complete share numbers based on the accurate live data only. It is always great if your live numbers go up, but it is a little less great if live numbers went up for everybody else as well, causing your show to get the same -- or possibly even lower -- share of the viewer audience despite the increase in live viewers.

So without further ado, here are the numbers I have so far this season for Chuck.

Ep., Live, 18-49, 18-35
____________________________
201, 6.136, 2.6/7, 2.4/7
202, 5.298, 2.2/6, 2.1/6
203, 5.520, 2.3/6, 2.2/6
204, 6.226, 2.5/6, 2.4/6
205, 5.892, 2.5/6, 2.4/6
206, -----, 2.3/6, 2.0/5
207, -----, 2.6/7, 2.1/6

The live viewer numbers are in millions and are final, accumulated a week after the airing of the episode. The points and shares are displayed, respectively, as X.X points/X shares under the age range and are based on over night "live + SD" numbers, not accurate live numbers.

The fishiest number in the table is the 2.6/7 points/shares for the 18-49 age range for episode 207. It is by far the most dramatic increase in ratings over a previous week, and the same trend is not reflected in the 18-35 age range, thereby raising a statistical red flag. Either it is a mistake (an overestimation) or there are an unprecedented number of middle-aged men (35-49) tuning in to see Yvonne Strahovski make eyes at them while dressed as a call girl and then get naked in the shower. If so, I doubt these men will be tuning in next week since Yvonne doesn't seem to be getting dressed as a call girl nor getting naked in any way in 208!

Adieu, Chuck fans -- possibly forever from these boards. You've been great, but I think I may be defecting to Sarah Connor. Wasn't really planning on it, but I always follow my heart, and right now it is telling me I want to see what happens next over in SC world.

wow i lost u after the first paragraph. Good riddance

Chuck is not dead you moron where did you come up with that.It's ratings this week have been the highest they have ever been infact it's better then it was in the last 2 weeks.Oh yeah the show your defecting to is doing so bad it makes Chuck look great ratings wise.And you lost in the first paragraph you went to technical and umm well your kinda wrong on the ratings.

Hnicole=Troll.

Just ignore that post, guys. Not worth it.

The ratings have been good for chuck.Ratings last week were right up with last season.While our rival show terminator cant even bring in viewers to save its metal name plate. If i were a betting man i would put alll my money on chuck to successed.This is just my opinion im not bashing or trying to start anything im just looking at the numbers between the two shows.

Travis

... oh my! Well, all's well that ends well, I guess. And yes, the word Troll must come to mind.
It does point to an interesting fact, which is that SCC and Chuck fans are from the same base, or at least crossover. And perhaps the difference [between SCC and Chuck fans] is significant too: I've always said Chuck fans are just *nicer* if not more articulate and thoughtful than most folks, particularly board folks. I love SCC and went to their boards once... all I can say is, our brief visitor from outer social grace will be well placed in flame-ville... now I digress.
SCC taps into a similar sci fi geek aesthetic, and has Summer Glau to boot. (big ex Firefly draw, although I don't know how big those numbers are, and besides, we have Adam Baldwin)
I really thought SCC was splitting our viewers. But the week SCC was dark, our numbers di not change significantly. Go figure.
Several people have made the excellent point that things will look up as the schedule opens up. And upcoming publicity is bound to help so much.
As for Yvonne on X Men... is that really a possibility? Awesome thought!

(oh, and I never ever watch SCC live.... Online only, a distant second after live Chuck and at least one online streaming of Chuck... what can I say, I am a devoted Chuckster!)

It is amazing that we have all gotten along for the past year or so. I mean, we debate, but we don't get personal...

After last episodes rating increase, I don't see it going down at all. And if we can keep those viewers until Christmas Break, we have the 3D episode near the beginning of the second half of the season to hopefully pull in 150 million potential viewers.

Oh, and I apologize, Hnicole, if you are not just trying to get attention. But calling Chuck a closet gay...

calling Chuck a closet gay was one of the funniest things i have ever read.Which he is not but still its a funny theory to joke about.I think Chuck will give Sarah something special for the christmas episode that i think none of us would see coming.

Well if he likes he can still watch chuck on mondays... there moving TSCC to fridays

Oh, and one more thing, than I'm done with this, I promise...



You know, I'm betting more people watched it because... you ready for it... it's the best show on TV. Sometimes, the simplest answer is the best one.

I know we have a different opinion about many things, but i have to tell you, I completely ,absolutely , deeply and happily agree with you on that one

Chuck is having pretty good ratings so i think there will be a 3rd season.I also realize they don't get much of a break in between filming seasons.Season 2 started filming mid July so season 3 would likely start earlyer considering there is not a stike going on.

^ I think season 3 is almost in the bag, but we have to keep spreading the Chuck gospel to keep the rating growing!!

Yes!! I agree we must keep spreading the Chuck Gospel to everyone! We are the best promotion that Chuck can have. So keep telling your friends. I'm telling you it can get contagious

I watch TSCC also, but I usually watch the episodes online. The show is good, but I like Chuck better. TSCC, unfortunately, is going to get canceled very soon. It's getting horrible demo numbers and total viewers. However, if TSCC can survive until May, the new Terminator movie with Christian Bale might give it a much needed boost when it comes out in May. But TSCC will get canceled first before Chuck.

While this week's ratings look promising, next week will be key to see if we can hold the viewership or see an increase. I can't wait till monday's episode and tuesday for the ratings.

Gotta keep promoting Chuck to the masses. Spread the word!

I've done my part...I just let a friend/co-worker borrow my season 1 DVD today and he's pretty interested in it after talking with him yesterday.

ABC has just announced that they're are cancelling three shows....Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, and Dirty, Sexy, Money. I haven't seen any of these shows so I feel indifferent to this news, but I'm sure glad that Chuck doesn't air on ABC and that NBC is sticking by the show for now. Maybe fans of these shows will boycott ABC for awhile because of anger about these shows being cancelled. Hopefully, some of these fans will crossover to NBC and discover the best show on TV right now....Chuck!

It's kinda strange isn't it ABC and NBC both clean house.both have done away with shows they do not need which is a good thing.looks like Chuck has saved itself to me as they have called it the most entertaining hour of television on the network.

I hope your right.

ABC cans three primetime shows

ABC has reportedly decided not to order back-nines for second-year dramas "Dirty Sexy Money," "Eli Stone" and "Pushing Daisies."

"The critically adored "Pushing Daisies" had averaged just over 6.75 million viewers over its first five airings and delivered series low demo ratings this past week. "

"Averaging just under 8.3 million viewers, "Eli Stone" is the most watched of the trio"

Those numbers look very familiar. I hope Chuck increases viewership after football and DWTS. Of course they aren't in the dreaded Monday time slots.

Remember what they said about My Own Worst Enemy even days before they canceled. "Most talked about show" or something like that

Does anybody know if NBC is showing reruns during the winter hiatus. This is probably the best way to increase viewership. I know that ABC is doing it and probably CBS too.

Ya, I just read about that That sucks, I love Pushing Daisies. It greatly saddens me that shows with so much heart, cleverness, creativity, and originality failed. How come America can't appreciate such shows? Instead second-rate, crap reality TV and cliche sitcoms are what dominates... (Maybe this is why our economy is so messed up )
*sigh*

^I know what your talking about. I loved the first season of Pushing Daisies but I never got around to watch the second season regularly. Good shows being canceled is such a shame (i.e. Arrested Development, Firefly).

I don't think NBC is doing any reruns. They have a lot of Xmas specials lined up and some new shows debuting so there might not be room for reruns. I would like for them to show reruns to keep viewers hooked into the show, but we'll see. Chuck should get major publicity for its 3D episode after the Super Bowl so maybe that's why we've seen less publicity for this show so far. Maybe they're saving up for the 3D episode to make a major push.

^Ya! Arrested Development was such a clever, smart, funny show! Maybe it really was just too good for TV. And Firely, too

There is a difference between ABC and NBC when it comes to keeping rating challenged, critically successful shows; just look at Friday Night Lights, for example.

PD getting canceled does really stink though...

Critical acclaim is pretty much as important as DVR numbers: nice to read about but useless overall. The cliffhanger this past episode hopefully nets more live viewers.

Also, did anybody read that NBC Tami numbers report? Apparently, Knight Rider gets about twice as many viewers as Chuck and 30 Rock.

I think the numbers for Knight Rider is a bit inflated because it is rebroadcast on Saturdays. Also, if you look at the week to week numbers, Knight Rider's has decreased significantly over the weeks. Chucks has been pretty steady.

wow i've never watched Knight Rider and I never will. It looks lke the dumbest show ever with bad acting and writing from the commercials I've seen (and of course Joel Mchale bashing on it on The Soup )

Over the past few weeks I've noticed the serious lack of advertising for Chuck. I DVR basically the entire NBC Thursday night lineup (Kath & Kim, The Office, 30 Rock) and this past Thursday I didn't see ONE commercial for Chuck throughout any of those shows. The Office and 30 Rock are some of the network's biggest shows so if they are serious about building an audience for Chuck then they need to make people know the show even exists! I've watched Chuck from the pilot episode and up until now I have only actually met one person besides myself that has heard of the show.

I remember being a fan of the original Knight Rider in middle school, I watched the movie last year, but haven't gotten into the series at all.

I did happen to catch the halloween episode (well the first 10 minutes of it then I moved on) I was impressed by the fact that the reference Captain Jack Harkness from Doctor Who/Torchwood... That is a big shout out for a show that probably averages about 1m viewers US

charaluvr - Yes, there does appear to be less advertising for Chuck over the last few weeks. However, there were a few promos aired during Saturday night's shows and couple promos during Saturday Night Live including a new one advertising a Thanksgiving Chuck mainly focused on Elle and Morgan, who says "we need a Thanksgiving miracle". Plus, there are always a ton of promos during Sunday Night Football.

Also, did anyone notice Tony Todd (aka Graham) on 24 this evening playing an African dictator?

Did Chuck get a 2nd airing on Sci Fi last year? Like some other shows that got re-aired the same week on a sister network, 24 on FX? in the 7pm slot on fridays?

It would make nice companion with David Tennant Doctor Who I think...

I think they should advertise during Sunday 1PM and 4PM games. The ads would be cheaper and more people are watching because it's their home teams playing most of the time. Sure the Sunday night game has the glory spot but I don't think you get enough bang for your advertising buck.

NBC does not broadcast afternoon NFL games. They only have the rights to broadcast the Sunday night NFL game. It is also the game of the week so it gets quite allot of viewers. However if they are watching the Sunday night game they are obviously footbal fans so they would most likely be watching the Monday Night Game as well. So I don't know if that helps Chuck much.

Well, lets hope for over seven million viewers tonight!

I've been thinking about it, and even though not coming back after the strike has hurt the ratings, I really believe it has helped the quality of the show, as they had more time to work on it; making it even better. I would hope they would make the same decision again.

I wonder if Chuck's potential for product placement as a revenue stream helps defray the cost of the show.

Either Warner Brothers pays for the bulk of the show through ad revenue through on screen items and passes a savings on the NBC for the rights to air it. Or NBC gets the cash up front, either way it can't hurt Chuck's bottom line. And making the show cheaper, can offset ratings slumps.

Think about it, Iphones, Xbox, Wii, The Toyota Matrix, I bet Apple paid a little extra for the slam of the Zune in Chuck v. Tom Sawyer.

Lets go 7,000,000!!!

i'm actually a little worried for tonight's rating...because dwts finale is on tonight and i think most people want to see who will win tonight...even casual fans of the show...but i'm keeping my fingers crossed

Positive thoughts and we can catapult those number above 7million or beyond...wishful thinking I know.

I forgot DWTS finale is today, but I think Chuck should hold up fairly well. DWTS audience skews very old, plus the winner won't be revealed until the 9pm hour, so Heroes might be more impacted than Chuck. I'll be extremely happy if Chuck gets similar numbers to what it got last week. But if we can hit the 7 million mark, in the face of the DWTS finale, Chuck should have a fairly good couple of weeks with seemingly less competition. The power of positive thinking

I wish the ratings were instantaneous. I hate waiting to find out how Chuck did.

I read a lot of people saying that they hope to get to 7M. I don't know much about ratings, apart from the fact that more is better. With that in mind, my question is: Is there a 'break even point' for a show like Chuck? Is there a threshold below which the show will be cancelled or above which the show is safe? If so, how is that calculated?

The 7 million mark, for the most part, is just a psychological boost for the fans IMO. Chuck hasn't hit 7 million viewers this season yet, so hitting it would be a season high for Chuck. 7 million would be significant if Chuck reaches it this week because of the DWTS finale and MNF. It would show, especially to NBC, the resiliency of Chuck. Even though Chuck is not highly rated, it has been one of the most stable shows on NBC (neither losing nor gaining much viewers).

More about the ratings, for the most part ratings for Chuck (and other NBC shows) are compared to the network average in the 18-34 and 18-49 demo averages. This website explains it all and has been fairly accurate in the past.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/11/18/pushi...y-a-thread/8379

Also, 7 million would be nice but it is all about the demo numbers. Decent demo numbers for Chuck will go a long way for the show to being renewed for next season.

I'm praying for 7 million..please God please!!

Amen to that... actually bummed that there is a short break at Christmas time...

Haha that's what we get from network television. Chuck will come back in a big way come the new year because of the Super Bowl. Since Chuck is the only show going to be shown in 3D the Monday following the Super Bowl, it should get tons of publicity. Maybe that's why we haven't seen that many ads for Chuck. Maybe NBC is gearing up for a big blitz come the new year.